Probability & Reason (Type Black)

#7 PROBABILISTIC REASONING

Suggestion#7:

If you have a dream that predicted something in the future and it came true avoid automatically labeling it as “psychic.”

You need to take into account “chance,” guessing, and you need to take into account how many dreams you have had that did not come true.

If you have 2 predictive dreams in one year, you also need to consider the dreams that were not precognitive and consider that the probability of 2 dreams out of 356 dreams per year being somewhat predictive is VERY HIGH, especially if your day-to-day is routine.

If you had a dream that you would run into a certain friend that you often do run into, that doesn’t count. Or, if they call you often and then the phone rings and you know before looking that it’s them, that doesn’t count either.

These are examples of routine and even errors in probabilistic reasoning. Also, “predictions” that are vague and generalized, those don’t count either. There needs to be detail, specifics. The more details, the less likely it’s just a coincidence.

Chance happens, routine happens, coincidence happens, and unless you have frequent dreams that come true, where the dreams and actual events have a lot of details that are the same, or the dreams predict something way outside of your routine, you shouldn’t be jumping to label a dream or an impression as “psychic.”

Look at the evidence. If it’s more likely chance than psychic, stick with chance or leave the label open to change. Coincidences happened far more, MUCH more than most people think. Here, let’s test your probabilistic reasoning skills:

ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTION:

There are currently 30 people in one room – what is the chance that any two of these people have birthdays on the same day? (Assuming that there 365 days in a year)

a) 0% chance

b) 5% chance

c) 70% chance

d) 100% chance

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Answer: There is about a 70% chance.

If you picked 0-20%, the likelihood of you convincing yourself that chance happenings are genuinely psychic goes up the lower the percentage you chose. If you did choose a lower percentage, you may want to improve your probabilistic reasoning by Googling “probability brain teasers.” Just a suggestion….